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Airbus Global Market Forecast for the next 20 years

Airbus on September 18 released its Global Market Forecast, which predicts a need for more than 39,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

The world’s passenger and freighter aircraft fleet, according to Airbus, is expected to more than double from nearly 23,000 today to almost 48,000 by 2038 – with traffic growing at 4.3 per cent annually.

“The four per cent annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short term economic shocks and geo-political disturbances. Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect,” said Christian Scherer, Airbus chief commercial officer and head of Airbus International. “Globally, commercial aviation stimulates GDP growth and supports 65 million livelyhoods, demonstrating the immense benefits our business brings to all societies and global trade.”

Looking more specifically at a doubling of the global fleet to 48,000 airplanes by 2038, Airbus states this would include just over 39,000 new aircraft. Of these, around 25,000 aircraft are predicted for growth and the remaining 14,000 are to replace older models.

These aircraft numbers put forward by Airbus would also result in a need for 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians.

The company used a new segmentation of aircraft in its forecast, based on the evolution of technology in terms of capacity, range and mission type.

Small aircraft, such as a short-haul A321 and A220, are predicted to account for just under 30,000 of the new aircraft needed by 2038.

This is in addition to around 5,300 Medium aircraft, such as the A321LR or A330, and, 4,100 Large aircraft, such as the A350 XWB.